Where We Work

Let us turn now to employment and unemployment in the 5 counties. National figures reported in the news are typically seasonally-adjusted to smooth out fluctuations that occur with the change in seasons. The unemployment data we have are not seasonally adjusted, and so don’t necessarily present a clear picture of unemployment trends. Thus, it is best to compare figures to the same month one year before. Figure C does just that, comparing unemployment rates this last August to the rates one and two years ago for our 5 counties and the state. The first thing to note is that over the last 2 years unemployment rates have dropped for all but Jefferson County. For the most part this reflects the recovery of the national and state economies from the recession of 2001. The recoveries were hardly smooth though for several counties. Rock, Jefferson and Green counties as well as the state experienced small increases in unemployment from 2002 to 2003. Walworth and Lafayette counties had substantial declines in the same period, by half a percentage point in Walworth and a bit more in Lafayette.

From August 2003 to August 2004 the increase in unemployment in Jefferson county continued; what was a tie for the lowest unemployment rate amongst the 5 counties became the second-highest by a slim margin. All the rest improved, with unemployment rates in 2004 lower than 2 years before. The most improvement was in Lafayette county, dropping from a rate of 6.1% in Aug 2002 to a rate of 4.1% in Aug 2004. Green county experience a decline nearly as large, most all of it in the last year.

Comparing the counties, its clear Rock has the most unemployment, more than a full percentage point higher than any other. All other counties at (for Jefferson) or below the state-wide rate. Walworth consistently has maintained the lowest rates of unemployment over the past two years, with Green and more recently Lafayette having rates lower than the state average. The full set of monthly data also show that unemployment in Rock County did not follow the seasonal cycle this year, with spikes in June and July, at 6.9% and 8% respectively, of this year before showing some reduction in August where other countries . If unemployment in Rock County does follow the upward phase of the cycle that typically occurs at year’s end, unemployment in Rock could become yet higher still.

One source of concern in this area is the loss of manufacturing jobs, and it seems that concern is not misplaced though there is not a steady decline either. Table A shows a few pieces of the employment picture from 1992 to 2001. The first thing to note is that Lafayette County depends on farming for over a quarter of all employment, far in excess of any other county. Lafayette is also distinguished in that nearly a third of all non-farm employment is in government. While the actual number of jobs in government is relatively small, because the total amount of employment in Lafayette is so small the percentage is high. Thus more so that for any other of the 5 counties Lafayette incomes will be susceptible to county finances and conditions in agricultural markets. Manufacturing, while still employing nearly a quarter of employees at private firms, has a lower share in Lafayette than any other county, though manufacturing is more important in all 5 counties than in the state as a whole. Lafayette also has the distinction of being the only county in which manufacturing jobs declined continuously over the 10 years from 1992-2001. Walworth County maintains the second highest share of non-farm employment in government, due largely to the number of state workers at UW-Whitewater.

All other counties besides Lafayette saw more manufacturing jobs from 1992 to 1997 before seeing subsequent declines from 1997 to 2001, driven in large part by an unusually strong US dollar in the late 1990s which disadvantaged US producers relative to foreign production, and the recession that saw off the new century. However, the state as a whole and every one of our 5 counties except Rock and Lafayette had more manufacturing jobs in 2001 than in 1992, though due to a growing labor force this usually meant a lower percentage of private industry jobs in manufacturing, about 5 percentage points lower. Rock County was the hardest hit, losing nearly 800 jobs over those ten years. Green County is the only one to maintain its share of employment in manufacturing over the 10 years. One last point of interest is Jefferson County, which had a greater share of employment in manufacturing than any of the other 5 at nearly 36% of private employment in 2001, followed by Rock at just over 29%.

The general decline of manufacturing employment from 1997 to 2001 seems to have continued on into the current year for most counties. Table B shows a more complete employment picture for September of 2002, 2003 and 2004. These numbers are not strictly comparable to the ones before 2002 as the Federal government changed industrial classification systems which meant fewer jobs were counted as being in manufacturing. One thing that stands out is the loss of non-farm jobs in every country but Lafayette over the last two years. Some of that is the loss of jobs with the government, in most cases at the county level but in the case of Walworth at the state level. Manufacturing in particular has seen recent declines in most counties, from a few in Green and Lafayette (167 and 72, respectively) to a substantial number in Jefferson, which lost nearly 1500 jobs, and Rock which lost 1200 jobs and is the only county to lose manufacturing jobs in both of the past 2 years. Only Walworth county has maintained roughly the same number of jobs in manufacturing. However, in every county manufacturing has been a smaller share of private employment to a greater or lesser degree.

So are there any areas of employment growth? In every county, Wholesale and Retail Trade employment has risen. Many of these jobs are those characterized as the “low-paying service jobs”. Jefferson county has added about 150 jobs in Construction, Extraction and Natural Resource industries, as well as over 300 each in Tourism and Hospitality, and high-level service industries. Lafayette has gained about 50 jobs in Education and Health Services. Whatever employment growth is to be had in Rock County has been in Financial Services with about 200 more jobs from 2002 to 2003 and High-Level Professional Services with about 300 more jobs. Walworth has also seen about 200 more jobs in Financial Services and almost 200 more in Education and Health Services.

This all likely shows that many workers will experience adjustment difficulties. If the recent trends continue, manufacturing may continue to shed workers, and the skills these workers have in manufacturing are unlikely to have the skills in industries showing employment growth without substantial investment in skill upgrading.

Employment Data—Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development.
http://www.dwd.state.wi.us

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