Labor Force Patterns
It is easiest to compare trends across the 5 counties by using an index of the size of the labor force over the past 4 years. 2001 is the base year, and is set at an index of 100 for each county. The labor force in subsequent years is divided by the labor force in the base year and then multiplied by 100. So, if the index in 2003 is 105, that tells us that not only is the labor force larger than in 2001, but 5% larger.
Looking at Figure L1, we see immediately that since 2001, the labor force has contracted significantly in the two most rural counties. Over the past four years, the labor force in Green County has fallen by 5% and fallen by 10% in Lafayette County; about 1000 workers in both cases. The rest of them as well as the state as a whole have more persons in the labor force than in 2001, but by less than 2% in all cases. Over the past year, the state as well as Walworth, Jefferson, and Lafayette counties have all seen labor force declines. Green has held steady, while there has been a substantial increase in Rock County. In terms of aggregate numbers, the changes in Rock county are the most significant as it has nearly 40% of the total for the five. The five counties together have added about 800 persons to the labor pool over the past year.
Employment
Figure L2 show us trends in the number of employed persons which gives us a sense of the change in the number of jobs. Wisconsin overall has gained jobs since 2001. The state has lost about 10,000 jobs over the past year, but 2004 seems to have had unusually high employment in the state. Again, we see that Green and Lafayette counties have lost jobs, in fact at a higher rate than the loss of persons from the labor force, and as we will see it is the loss of jobs which has driven the reductions in the labor force there. The job losses in both counties have slowed over the past year, and while Green has essentially held steady the job losses are still substantial for Lafayette County. Jefferson County, after experiencing a decline in jobs in 2002, has since recovered to 2001 jobs levels and added fewer than 100 jobs over the past year. Rock County stands out as having not just the greatest gains in jobs since 2001 with 2.7% more employment since then, but also over the past year with over 1200 additional persons employed.
Unemployment
Figure L3 shows an index of the number of unemployed persons, and in Figure L4 the unemployment rate. Both show substantial jumps in right after 2001 with the exception of Rock County. However, Rock County maintains the highest unemployment rate of the lot. Though all counties have recovered from the worst year of 2003, only Rock County has seen a significant reduction in the numbers of unemployed since 2001. Over the past year however, Jefferson County has seen the most reduction in both the numbers of unemployed and the unemployment rate. Rock County as well has seen lower unemployment by both measures over the past year. Walworth County has seen fewer unemployed over the past year, but this has not significantly reduced the unemployment rate. The unemployment picture for Green and Lafayette counties has deteriorated over the past year, showing that the reduction in the labor force in those counties has been insufficient to keep up with the reduction in employment there. Regardless, they and all but Rock counties maintain unemployment rates lower than the average for the state, which is itself lower than the national average.
The overall picture would seem to offer Rock County as having the strongest improvement in labor market conditions at least in terms of employment. Given the sharp reductions in unemployment in Jefferson County over the past year and some growth in jobs, the labor market there may be on the verge of improving. Walworth County seems to be holding steady. Green and Lafayette appear to have significant labor market weakness. While the declines in the labor force and employment since 2001 have slowed over the past year, the increase in unemployment over the past year may signal a continuation of the contraction.
